Bay Area schools have experienced the third largest decline in student enrollment in California over the past 10 years, as families left high-cost coastal areas for more affordable inland cities and states, new data shows. The region is expected to see an even larger loss over the next 10 years. Data from the state’s Department of Education, released last month, shows school enrollment throughout California dropped by nearly 15,000 students for the 2023-24 school year, marking the seventh consecutive year of statewide declines. Measured over the last 10 years, enrollment in Bay Area schools fell 8%, trailing only the Los Angeles and Sierra regions in the percentage of student losses, according to an analysis of the data by the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonprofit think tank based in San Francisco. What we saw happening during the pandemic and what we continue to see is that people migrated away from the really high-cost areas into places in California or outside of California that are more affordable,” said Heather Hough, executive director of the Policy Analysis for California Education, an independent, non-partisan research center based at Stanford University known as PACE. “We’re continuing to see growth in those inland places, which historically have been more affordable.” Data from the state education department and demographic projections from the state indicate the region by 2033 will see an even larger loss, a 14% drop from current enrollment — bigger than the state’s projected 12% decline. The findings spell more pain for local school districts. Several Bay Area districts, including San Francisco Unified, Oakland Unified and San Jose’s Alum Rock, have already had to discuss merging or closing schools due to declining enrollment, limited resources and hefty budget deficits. Larger, nationwide demographic shifts in birthrates and immigration mean California schools will still have to brace for continued declines in enrollment long-term. “This is the reality over the next 10 years,” said Hough from PACE, whose research is led by faculty directors at Stanford, the University of Southern California, UC Davis, UCLA and UC Berkeley. “The pandemic exacerbated a trend that was already happening and that created a lot of chaos for many school districts because seemingly overnight, they had these huge declines in population and had to scramble to adjust. “The good news is that it seems that the rate has slowed,” Hough said. “But there are big decisions that will still be on the horizon, especially in these places where there is going to be a continued decline over the next 10 years.”