This study explores how teacher characteristics and school context affect the timing of teacher exits from schools, using a two-level discrete-time survival analysis framework. Results for Los Angeles Unified School District show that school context is crucial, especially type of school and organizational characteristics, beyond individual teacher qualifications. Differences between elementary and secondary teachers are also observed.

This baseline analysis examines the projected need for teachers in California based on student enrollment projections, expected rates of new teachers and teacher retirements. However, it does not take into account recent policy changes such as the budget's call for reductions in class size or the proposed changes to teacher credentialing requirements. These changes will impact the need for teachers in California. The analysis shows regional teacher shortages, which are expected to persist despite the new policies.